Chapecoense and Botafogo face off this Thursday at Arena Condá in the decisive second leg of the fifth round of the Copa do Brasil. Botafogo holds the advantage after a 1-0 victory at Nilton Santos, with Alex Telles scoring in the final minutes, meaning a draw is enough for the Rio de Janeiro side to advance to the round of 16.
Struggling at the bottom of the Série A table, Chapecoense must win by a two-goal margin to qualify in regular time. The match marks the third meeting between the teams in less than a month, with Botafogo winning both previous encounters, including a 4-1 thrashing in Chapecó during the Brasileirão.
### Match Analysis
Chapecoense is going through its toughest period since returning to the top flight. After four seasons away from the elite, the Santa Catarina club has only nine points from 14 matches and has won just once in the Brazilian Championship: a 4-2 victory over Santos on January 28. Since then, the team has accumulated six draws and seven losses in the following 13 games.
The numbers underline the worrying scenario in Chapecó. According to the mathematical model from UFMG, Chapecoense has an 82.7% probability of relegation. Recent performances highlight the team’s struggle to find competitive stability throughout the season.
Even the Arena Condá has provided little respite. Across all competitions, Chapecoense records four wins, five draws, and three losses at home, with 27 goals scored and 20 conceded. In the Brasileirão specifically, the home form is even more concerning: the team has conceded goals in nine of their last ten home league matches. Moreover, they have managed only one comeback in nine games where they fell behind this season. Defensive frailties and a lack of resilience explain the club’s lowly position.
On the other hand, Botafogo finds itself in a more stable situation, though still inconsistent in the Brasileirão. Under Portuguese manager Franclim Carvalho, who took over on April 2, the club has 18 points and sits 11th, with a game in hand over most rivals. Carvalho’s work is showing consistent signs of progress. In ten games in charge, he has five wins, four draws, and just one loss. Early qualification for the Copa Sudamericana, secured after a 2-1 victory over Racing on May 6, has also boosted the squad’s confidence.
Botafogo’s matches have been the most goal-filled in Série A this season. According to Opta data, their games average 3.9 goals per match, with 1.8 scored and 2.1 conceded. The offensive output partly compensates for defensive vulnerabilities shown at times.
Away from home, Botafogo also maintains competitive numbers. They rank as the sixth-best visitors in the competition, and the 1-1 draw with Atlético-MG at Arena MRV reinforced their ability to react. Arthur Cabral scored in the 44th minute of the second half after the team had been behind for over 70 minutes.
The elimination context clearly favors Botafogo. With the advantage from the first leg, Carvalho’s team can play more controlled without excessive exposure. Chapecoense, meanwhile, must take risks from the start.
To force penalties, the Santa Catarina side needs to win by one goal without conceding. A two-goal victory ensures direct qualification. Considering that Chapecoense has failed to win any of their last 13 Brasileirão games and has the worst average of shots faced in Série A (17.09 per match), the mission looks extremely difficult.
### Head-to-Head Record
The historical record heavily favors Botafogo. In 12 meetings between the teams, Botafogo has won eight times, compared to three Chapecoense victories and one draw. Even at Arena Condá, Chapecoense has won only two of the six matches played at home against Botafogo.
In the 2026 season, the teams have already met twice, with Botafogo dominating both times. In the Brasileirão, Botafogo thrashed Chapecoense 4-1 in Chapecó, with two goals from Edenílson and two from Matheus Martins. Days later, they won again at Nilton Santos, 1-0, in the first leg of the Copa do Brasil, with Alex Telles scoring late.
Recent form reinforces Botafogo’s superiority. They have conceded just one goal in the last six Série A meetings against Chapecoense, with five wins and one draw. Chapecoense’s last victory in the fixture came in November 2018 in the Brazilian Championship.
### Team News
**Chapecoense**
Chapecoense is expected to keep the same base lineup used in the draw with Mirassol, again employing a three-man defense. Anderson, who impressed in the first leg with good saves, remains the undisputed goalkeeper. In defense, Eduardo Doma stays as the central figure, having played every minute of the Brasileirão so far. Victor Caetano and João Paulo complete the backline, with João gaining more starting opportunities recently. On the flank, Everton returned to the starting eleven against Mirassol after recovering from an injury suffered in April and is available again.
In attack, Ênio remains Chapecoense’s main weapon. In the first leg against Botafogo, he created the team’s best chance by hitting the post with a long-range shot in the 37th minute of the second half. Jean Carlos, who came on well in the last round and was involved in the own goal against Mirassol, competes for a midfield spot with Camilo.
Probable Chapecoense lineup (3-4-1-2):
Anderson; Victor Caetano, Eduardo Doma, João Paulo; Everton, Camilo, João Vitor, Bruno Pacheco; Jean Carlos; Ênio, Yannick Bolasie.
Coach: Fábio Matias.
**Botafogo**
Franclim Carvalho is likely to make some changes to the starting lineup. Vitinho returns after serving a suspension against Atlético-MG and could reclaim the right-back spot or play further forward as a wing-back. Júnior Santos, the club’s top scorer this season, also has a chance to return after missing the last match.
The medical department still includes Kaio Pantaleão and Nathan Fernandes. Alexander Barboza’s situation is different: the defender is negotiating a transfer to Palmeiras in the next window but remains available for the decisive match in Chapecó.
Another option that has gained internal momentum is Marçal. The full-back came on well in the draw with Atlético-MG and could get an opportunity if Carvalho opts for a more conservative approach to manage the first-leg advantage. Off the pitch, Botafogo continues to deal with a transfer ban imposed by FIFA related to the signing of Santi Rodríguez.
Probable Botafogo lineup (4-3-3):
Neto; Vitinho, Ferraresi, Alexander Barboza, Alex Telles; Allan, Danilo, Edenílson; Matheus Martins, Arthur Cabral, Júnior Santos.
Coach: Franclim Carvalho.
### Key Players
**Chapecoense – Ênio**
– 25-year-old Brazilian forward, ex-Botafogo
– 11 games for Chapecoense in 2026, with one goal
– Hit the post in the first leg, Chapecoense’s best chance
– 4 goals and 1 assist in 36 games for Juventude in 2025
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