Southampton and Middlesbrough will determine their promotion fate in the second leg of the Championship play-off semi-final at St Mary’s on Tuesday (20:00 BST).
The first leg at The Riverside ended in a goalless draw on Saturday, meaning extra time and penalties could decide which side advances to the final at Wembley on 23 May. They will face either Millwall or Hull City, who play their second leg at The Den on Monday night.
Southampton have failed to win any of their last five meetings with Middlesbrough across all competitions (D3 L2), dating back to the 2016-17 Premier League season, when they completed the league double over them (1-0 at home, 2-1 away).
Under Tonda Eckert, Southampton have lost only once at home in all competitions — a 1-2 defeat to Hull City in January — and have won 13 of their other 18 matches at St Mary’s (D5). Their last two home games both ended in 2-2 draws, against Bristol City and Ipswich Town in April.
Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last six away matches across all competitions, all in the Championship (W2 D4), with each of their last four on the road ending in draws. The most recent three have all finished 2-2.
This is only the third time in second-tier play-off history that both first-leg semi-finals have finished goalless. Middlesbrough’s expected goals (xG) in the first leg (1.82) were higher than the other three teams combined (1.63).
Southampton are aiming to reach the Championship play-off final for the second time, having last done so in 2024, when they secured promotion with a 1-0 win over Leeds United after finishing fourth.
Middlesbrough are looking to reach the final for the first time since losing 2-0 to Norwich City in the 2015 final. They have been eliminated in both subsequent play-off semi-final appearances in 2018 and 2023, though they drew both away legs 0-0 on those occasions.
Southampton goalkeeper Daniel Peretz made four saves in the first leg. During the regular season, only Carl Rushworth (7.72) and Radek Vítek (7.15) prevented more goals than his 6.48 based on Opta’s expected goals model (18 goals conceded excluding own goals, 24.48 expected goals on target conceded).
Middlesbrough’s Matt Targett created more chances than any other player across both first-leg ties of this season’s Championship semi-final play-offs (4), all from open play. In the regular Championship season, the only defender to create more chances from open play than Targett (44) was Jay Dasilva (46).
